After an unnerving end to the trend of draws every other week in September, we’re getting a lot of questions about what immigration through Express Entry might look like in Q4 of 2024. Are we going to ‘catch up’ on missed draws? Or will there be smaller, less frequent draws to come? To find out, we’re digging into the stats so far from 2024 to see what we can learn.
Since Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) hasn’t released information about its plans for Express Entry for the rest of 2024, we are speculating in this article. If you need individual guidance to navigate Express Entry and your immigration pathway to Canada, we suggest reaching out to an immigration consultant.
Key Takeaways
- At the end of July, Canada had landed more than 88,000 permanent residents in 2024 through Express Entry.
- More permanent residents were admitted to Canada in Q1 and Q2 of 2024 than in the same periods in 2023. In other words, we’re on track to admit at least as many permanent residents through Express Entry in 2024 (around 120,000).
- The draws we see through October, November, and December will correlate to permanent resident landings in 2025. So, what we see over the next few months will impact immigration levels in 2025.
Express Entry So Far In 2024
Canada is on track to admit around 120,000-125,000 permanent residents through Express Entry in 2024. This is slightly above the high range of 116,000 for 2024 according to the immigration levels plan, but in line with what we saw in 2023.
Many of the people who were admitted to Canada in June, July, August, and September would have received invitations to apply for permanent residence through an Express Entry draw earlier this year, since applications for many Express Entry programs take around 5-6 months to be processed on average.
Similarly, many of those who are admitted for October, November, and December would also have received invitations to apply earlier this year.
This means that many of those who received invitations in July or later will be admitted in 2025. July itself was a huge month for Express Entry invitations, as you can see in this overview of invitations in 2024:
- January 2024: 3,280 invitations
- February 2024: 16,110 invitations
- March 2024: 7,305 invitations
- April 2024: 9,275 invitations
- May 2024: 5,985 invitations
- June 2024: 1,499 invitations
- July 2024: 25,125 invitations
- August 2024: 10,384 invitations
- September 2024: 5911 invitations.
What Express Entry Draws Might There Be In Q4 2024?
Back in July 2024, we predicted that IRCC would need to issue around 70,000 ITAs in the second half of 2024. During Q3, they issued a whopping 41,413 ITAs. This means for Q4, we think IRCC will issue just under 30,000 more, so around 10,000 a month.
Although this will make Q4 quieter than Q3, it will still be more than Q1 which saw 26,695 ITAs issued and Q2 which saw 16,759 ITAs issued.
There has also been some speculation that planned immigration levels for 2025 will decrease which may impact the above prediction. We will have better insight on this once the new 2025-2027 immigration levels are announced in November 2024. Be sure to sign up for our newsletter to be the first to hear about any changes.
What Types Of Draws Can We Expect in Q4?
There has been a rise in Provincial Nominee Program draws and Canadian Experience Class draws. We expect this trend to continue into Q4 as IRCC focuses on transitioning more temporary residents to permanent status.
We also expect the continuation of category-based draws. In Q3, IRCC conducted numerous French language proficiency draws but few draws targeting the other categories. Because of this, we would expect to see at least one STEM draw and perhaps one more Healthcare draw.
Will The CRS Drop For Express Entry in 2024?
Unfortunately, we don’t foresee the CRS for Express Entry decreasing for Canadian Experience Class or Provincial Nominee Program draws in 2024. It is likely that it will continue to hover around 510, and we would be surprised to see it fall below 500 in the near term.
We would also predict that the French draw CRS will likely remain around 440, or may potentially go slightly higher.
If we see a STEM or Healthcare draw, we would not be surprised to see a slight dip in the CRS – though due to it being a long time since the last draws for these categories, there may be higher demand (which may lead to the scores being similar to the earlier draws in 2024).
